ESPN’s Mike Clay Thinks the Lions Are Championship Good But Jared Goff Is Getting Worse
The stat projection season is here, which means ESPN’s Mike Clay has dropped his annual numbers for the Lions. And look, Clay usually nails some stuff while missing wildly on other things. This year’s Lions projections are no different.
The big picture? Clay has the Lions winning 12 games and earning the second seed in the NFC. Only the Rams project better at 13.2 wins. That would give Detroit the second-best record in the entire NFL.
He also has the Lions scoring 452 points, good for fourth in the league behind the Rams, Bills, and Cowboys. All of this tracks with what we know about this offense.
The Individual Numbers Tell a Story of Explosive Talent
Jahmyr Gibbs leads the entire league with 14 rushing touchdowns in Clay’s projections. He’s also got him fifth in rushing yards with 1,328, first in total touchdowns, and second in yards from scrimmage. That feels about right for a back in this system.
Amon-Ra St. Brown gets projected as the third-best receiver in the NFL with 118 catches, 1,430 yards, and 10 touchdowns. This is what you’d expect from him playing opposite Jameson Williams.
Speaking of Williams, Clay has him putting up another 1,000-yard season with 1,069 yards and six touchdowns. Not a massive leap, but consistent with what he’s been doing.
But Then There’s the Jared Goff Thing
Here’s where Clay’s projections get weird. He has Goff throwing for 4,200 yards and 29 touchdowns. On paper, that puts him second in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns league-wide.
But hold on. That’s nearly 400 yards less than what he had in 2025 and nearly 500 yards less than in 2024. The 29 touchdowns would be the fewest touchdowns he’s thrown since 2022.
This makes zero sense. You’re telling me the Lions are going to be the second-best team in the NFL while their quarterback takes a massive step backward? With this offensive line and these weapons?
The Supporting Cast Projections Look Solid
Clay has Isiah Pacheco putting up 679 yards and five touchdowns as the complementary back to Gibbs. That’s solid production for a guy who doesn’t need to carry the load.
Sam LaPorta gets 788 yards and five touchdowns, which feels conservative for a tight end who should be fully healthy.
The one projection that seems way too low is Isaac TeSlaa at just 24 catches for 302 yards and three touchdowns. This is a guy who should be pushing 500 yards and getting significant red zone looks.
Clay’s projections paint a picture of a Lions offense that’s very good but not quite as explosive as we’ve seen. The Goff numbers especially feel like hedging against something that isn’t there. This offense has too much talent to take that kind of step back at quarterback.
Think Clay’s being way too conservative with Goff or is there something we’re missing about this offense? Drop your take below.
