Lions cutdown predictions

The Final Reckoning: Inside the Detroit Lions’ Most Ruthless Roster Cutdown Yet

The New Reality in Allen Park

The tension is as thick as the late-August humidity in Allen Park. Inside the Detroit Lions’ practice facility, there’s a nervous energy that’s become almost ritual as the final whistle of the preseason sounds. Roster cutdown day isn’t just a deadline, here, it’s a crucible. For general manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell, this year’s decisions are more agonizing than any in their tenure. “There’ll be tough decisions. I mean, I can think of three right now just off the top of my head, and there’s a couple more than that. It’ll be tough. It’s going to be really, really tough,” Campbell confessed to reporters this week, his words hanging in the air like the final notes of a funeral dirge.

If that sounds ominous, it should. The 2025 Detroit Lions are no longer the upstart collection of hopefuls and longshots that Holmes and Campbell inherited. This is a team built for now. A roster thick with blue-chip talent, trusted veterans, and young players who’ve already flashed in big moments. Yet, the NFL’s unforgiving math remains. Fifty-three golden tickets. Dozens of dreams dashed.

Holmes and Campbell: No More Room for Projects

Holmes, for his part, has been telegraphing a new era in Detroit’s approach to roster construction all summer. As he put it in a recent interview with Kay Adams, “What’s gotten really hard, and it’s really been visible this year, is that in the past, especially in our first couple years, we had a lot of just young, developmental players that we really liked and we had a lot of room for. And as the guys have made these leaps and bounds and the talent has gotten better, it’s hard to always find room for those young, developmental guys.” The subtext is clear: the Lions’ window is open, and there’s no patience left for projects. The best men make the team, period.

The Ripple Effect: Dorsey, Wingo, and the Depth Chart Dominoes

That philosophy is about to be tested in the most dramatic ways imaginable. Nowhere more so than at the back end of the roster, where promising but unproven players are suddenly fighting for their NFL lives. One need only look at the secondary, where the return of Khalil Dorsey and Mekhi Wingo from injury has sent ripples through the depth chart. Dorsey, a special teams ace and gunner with a reputation as “one of the great gunners in the game of football right now,” as special teams coordinator Dave Fipp put it, is all but locked in. Wingo, coming off a promising rookie year, is another near-certainty. Their comebacks are triumphs for the trainers and for Holmes’ scouting eye, but they’re also harbingers of doom for players like Nick Whiteside and Keith Cooper Jr., who have impressed in flashes but now find themselves in the crosshairs.

A Logjam on the Defensive Line

The Lions’ defensive line is another powder keg. Detroit’s front office and coaching staff are enamored with depth, but the numbers simply don’t add up. There’s an old saying in NFL circles: “If you’re arguing about the 51st or 52nd spot, you’re a good team.” The Lions are well past that. With established starters and high-upside backups crowding the room, the likes of Nate Lynn, Isaac Ukwu, Cooper Jr., and Myles Adams are locked in a battle royale for maybe one or two remaining spots. Complicating matters is the status of Josh Paschal, expected to start the year on the NFI list, which could temporarily free up a slot, but only temporarily. When Paschal returns, someone else’s dream will end.

Wide Receiver Roulette: Youth vs. Experience

The wide receiver room is a microcosm of the larger dilemma facing Holmes and Campbell. Veteran Tim Patrick, once considered a lock, is now on the bubble thanks to the meteoric rise of rookies Isaac TeSlaa, Dominic Lovett, and Jackson Meeks. TeSlaa, a 6’4″ contested-catch maven, has done everything asked of him, on offense and special teams alike. Lovett’s game-breaking speed and heads-up play on special teams have forced him into serious consideration, even as he battles ball control issues. Meeks, meanwhile, is the classic camp darling, leading the team in receptions last week and logging more special teams snaps than either of the other rookies. “Do you need all three?” an anonymous Lions insider mused to Yardbarker. The answer may be no, but the fact that it’s even a debate shows how far this roster has come.

The Hooker Conundrum: Development vs. Immediate Value

If there’s one position that perfectly encapsulates the “no more projects” ethos, it’s quarterback. Hendon Hooker, a third-round pick from 2023, finds himself at a career crossroads. The physical tools are there, but according to those close to the team, it’s the mental side that has him on thin ice. “The Lions now have a few days to figure out if they want to keep or cut him, and it will come down to the wire,” one beat writer noted. There’s an argument to be made for keeping him as a developmental piece, but Holmes’ recent comments suggest that luxury may be a thing of the past. Kyle Allen, a veteran who wouldn’t be subject to waivers, could be the safer, if less exciting, option as QB2 behind Jared Goff.

Special Teams: The Sanctuary for the Versatile

On special teams, Fipp’s group has become a sanctuary for the versatile and the relentless. Craig Reynolds remains a steady presence as a return specialist, but the emergence of Sione Vaki – a running back who can also play wideout and even defense in a pinch – has added a new wrinkle. Grant Stuard, a “hair-on-fire” linebacker who made his bones in Indianapolis, is quickly becoming a coach’s favorite thanks to his size, speed, and fearlessness. Nick Whiteside, a UFL import, has forced his way into the discussion with a string of standout preseason performances, but the numbers game is brutal at cornerback. If Dorsey is healthy and entrenched, and with the secondary’s overall versatility, Whiteside may need another miracle to stick.

Long Shots and Heartbreaks: Practice Squad Dreams

Surprises are inevitable, and the Lions have a few candidates for this year’s Cinderella story. Running back Jacob Saylors, an All-UFL talent, has flashed as both a runner and a returner—his two kick returns for 61 yards in the last preseason game did not go unnoticed. Safety Ian Kennelly, an undrafted free agent out of Grand Valley State, has become a preseason darling thanks to his athleticism and heavy workload on both defense and special teams. Both are long shots, but each offers the kind of versatility Campbell loves.

Yet for every dark horse, there’s a sobering reality: Holmes’ history of holding onto his own draft picks is under the microscope. Of his 36 picks since 2021, only six are no longer on the roster, and all but one of those were late-round selections. The implication is that draft pedigree still matters, but perhaps less than ever before. “Now, with a stacked roster and a championship on their mind, that luxury is no longer there,” Holmes admitted. The message has been hammered home in meeting rooms and one-on-one conversations all summer: if you can’t help us win now, your spot isn’t safe.

So who, then, is locked in? The core is obvious: Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Aidan Hutchinson, Brian Branch, Alim McNeill, and the rest of the stars who powered last year’s playoff run. Veterans like Graham Glasgow, who’s reportedly looked strong in camp, provide stability. Dorsey and Wingo, with their timely returns, are safe. TeSlaa, Lovett, and Meeks have all but forced Holmes’ hand at receiver, though one of the three could be the odd man out if the staff opts for veteran security.

On the bubble, the tension is palpable. Tim Patrick’s veteran savvy may not be enough to stave off youth. Hooker’s fate will likely come down to a coin flip between upside and reliability. In the trenches, the last defensive line slots are a weeklong tryout, with special teams contributions serving as the ultimate tiebreaker. Whiteside, Saylors, Kennelly, each one a heartbeat away from either an NFL paycheck or a pink slip.

And then there are the heartbreaks, the names that will populate the bottom of transaction reports and practice squad wish lists. Cooper Jr., Lynn, Ukwu, and Adams all have NFL-caliber flashes, but this is the arithmetic of a contender: there simply aren’t enough spots for everyone. Some will find a second life on Detroit’s practice squad, others may get snatched up elsewhere. But for the first time in a generation, the Lions’ final cuts are less about finding bodies and more about agonizing over which good player to let go.

From Bottom-Feeders to Contenders: The Price of Progress

All of this underscores just how far Detroit has come. The days of keeping projects simply to fill out a roster are over. Every decision now is tinged with urgency—the kind that comes with real expectations, with the weight of a city’s hopes and a franchise’s best shot at glory in decades. “The best guy is going to play. The best man is going to make the team,” Holmes said. In Detroit, that’s no longer just a platitude. It’s the new reality.

As the clock ticks toward cutdown day, the drama has never felt more real. For the Lions, the hardest choices are now the best kind of problem: too much talent, too little room. For dozens of players, it’s the end of the line, or the start of something special. For the city, it’s proof that, at long last, the Lions’ roar means something again.

Why Haven't Lions Signed Za'darius Smith Yet?

The Lions’ Calculated Gamble: Why Detroit Hasn’t Re-Signed Za’Darius Smith in 2025

In Detroit, the air is thick with optimism. A franchise long synonymous with heartbreak now enters the 2025 season with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. Yet, amid the excitement, a conspicuous absence lingers: Za’Darius Smith, the veteran edge rusher who became both a locker-room voice and a disruptive presence on the field, remains unsigned. For a team that prides itself on grit and relentless pressure, the decision not to re-sign Smith raises questions about priorities, timing, and the fine line between sentiment and strategy in the modern NFL.

Background Information: Smith’s Arrival in Detroit

Smith wasn’t part of Detroit’s original 2024 roster. Instead, he arrived via a midseason trade with Cleveland, brought in after Aidan Hutchinson suffered a lower-body injury that sidelined him for most of the year. The Lions, firmly in the playoff hunt, needed immediate pass-rush help—and Smith delivered.

Despite joining the team late, he made his presence felt: 3.5 sacks, 31 pressures, and 6 tackles for loss in just nine games with Detroit. Those numbers, while modest on paper, were critical given the timing. He consistently drew protection that otherwise would have overwhelmed Detroit’s patchwork front.

2024 Stats (DET only)Games PlayedSacksPressuresTackles for Loss
Za’Darius Smith93.5316

More than statistics, Smith gave the defense a stabilizing veteran presence during a chaotic stretch. His arrival coincided with Detroit’s best defensive run of the year and helped carry them to the NFC Championship Game.

Current Team Needs: Building Around Hutchinson

Smith’s signing addressed a glaring weakness in 2024: a pass rush gutted by Hutchinson’s injury. With Hutchinson back healthy in 2025, the Lions’ calculus has changed. He remains the centerpiece—a budding superstar and Defensive Player of the Year candidate when healthy.

Around him, the Lions resigned Marcus Davenport and Al-Quadin Muhammad as cost-effective rotational pieces. They also leaned into youth, drafting Egyptian prospect Ahmed Hassanein (now out for an extended time due to injury) and giving undrafted rookie Nate Lynn extended preseason reps. Lynn, in particular, has been a revelation, leading the team in preseason pressures.

Still, Smith’s absence creates risk. While Hutchinson commands double-teams, Detroit lacks a proven secondary threat. Smith excelled in that role in Cleveland; his ability to punish protections tilted toward Myles Garrett made Cleveland’s defense far more dynamic. Without him, Detroit is betting on unproven players to shoulder the load.

Contractual Considerations: Dollars and Sense

The Lions’ decision is as much about dollars as defense. By releasing Smith in March, they avoided paying a $7 million roster bonus that would have locked them into roughly $11 million in cap commitments over two seasons. Instead, Detroit used the savings to bolster depth across the roster.

Here’s how the edge-rusher financials stand in 2025:

Player2025 Cap HitYears RemainingNotes
Aidan Hutchinson$11.4M2Rookie deal, extension looming
Marcus Davenport$4.1M1Incentive-heavy contract
Al-Quadin Muhammad$1.2M1Veteran depth
Za’Darius SmithFAWould have cost $7–8M (min)

General manager Brad Holmes prioritized flexibility. With extensions looming for Hutchinson and possibly Jameson Williams, committing big money to a 32-year-old pass rusher didn’t align with Detroit’s long-term strategy.

Injury History: A Risk Factor

Smith’s age and health also factored into the decision. He missed most of the 2021 season with a back injury and has battled smaller ailments since. Though he held up well in Detroit, the Lions must consider whether his durability can sustain another heavy workload.

The contrast with Hutchinson is stark: Detroit’s defensive future is built on the 24-year-old star. Investing heavily in Smith, while Hutchinson’s extension looms, could have compromised roster balance.

Comparative Analysis: Lessons Around the League

Detroit’s caution is hardly unique. The Minnesota Vikings moved on from Danielle Hunter before age 30, while the Patriots under Bill Belichick made a dynasty out of letting go of veterans “a year early, not a year late.”

On the flip side, Buffalo doubled down on Von Miller at 33, a gamble that paid short-term dividends but strained their cap when injuries hit. The Lions, in contrast, have chosen discipline over sentiment, hoping their young depth steps up without the need for a pricey veteran safety net.

Fan Reactions: A Divided Base

The move has sparked debate across Detroit. Many fans recall how Smith’s midseason arrival steadied the defense in Hutchinson’s absence and argue he’s earned another year.

“Pay the man. He saved our season last year,” one fan posted on Reddit.

Others side with the front office: “Smith was clutch, but this is about keeping the window open. We need Hutch locked up long-term.”

Sports radio chatter has echoed this divide. Analysts have floated the possibility of a one-year, incentive-heavy reunion, but as of mid-August, no deal has materialized.

Future Implications: What’s Next?

For Smith, the market remains open. He has publicly stated his desire to return to Detroit, telling NFL.com in June, “Hopefully I can get back here – it feels like home.” Yet the Lions seem content to wait.

That patience may prove wise. If Hutchinson stays healthy and the young depth develops, the Lions’ defense should be formidable. But if injuries strike again—or if January arrives with Hutchinson gassed from constant double-teams—Detroit may regret not keeping its midseason savior.

For Smith, the clock is ticking. A late signing after Week 1 (when veteran contracts are no longer fully guaranteed) remains a possibility.

Conclusion

The Lions’ choice not to re-sign Za’Darius Smith reveals both their confidence and their caution. Smith’s midseason arrival in 2024 was vital, somewhat rescuing a pass rush crippled by Hutchinson’s injury and helping propel Detroit into the postseason. Yet in 2025, the front office has prioritized cap discipline, youth development, and long-term planning.

Smith was more than just a player; he was a stabilizer in a season of chaos. His absence leaves a void that only time—and Detroit’s young edge rushers—can hope to fill.

In the unforgiving calculus of the NFL, timing matters as much as talent. For Smith and the Lions, 2025 may prove whether Detroit was shrewd in letting go—or shortsighted in undervaluing the man who once kept their championship dreams alive.

Ahmed Hassanein Injury update

Hassanein’s Tough Break Forces the Lions’ Hand and Could Simplify Some Roster Decisions

The Detroit Lions took a preseason loss to the Miami Dolphins on Saturday, but the real gut punch came after the game: sixth-round rookie Hassanein went down with a pectoral injury, and there’s a real chance we won’t see him on the field again this year. It’s tough to overstate how much buzz he’d built up in camp. Every day, you could see the lightbulb getting brighter, the plays coming a little faster, the confidence growing. He looked like a guy who’d be a factor in the rotation before too long. Now, that whole plan’s in limbo.

It’s a brutal turn for a rookie who’s been one of the best stories of the summer, both on and off the field. Hassanein’s been a favorite around the building. He’s easy to root for, easy to talk to, always putting in the work. You could see the pathway to real snaps by November. That dream just got a lot more complicated.

But where one door slams shut, another cracks open. The edge rusher competition has been the most heated battle in Allen Park outside of the backup quarterback race. Nate Lynn, Isaac Ukwu, and Keith Cooper Jr. have all made their cases. Before this injury, it felt like someone would get squeezed out. Now, the numbers game just got a little easier. In fact, there’s a scenario where all three stick.

Both Ukwu and Lynn have flashed with the first team, especially in joint practices against Miami. The Lions don’t have to pick just one; they can let both take a shot at making noise once the games actually count. All this, of course, is assuming Za’Darius Smith doesn’t come back and throw another wrench into the mix.

As for Cooper, he’s shown some real versatility. He can man the big end or bump inside. He’s stacked some impressive moments this camp and has probably nudged ahead of Brodric Martin for a spot. Myles Adams is lurking, though, and Dan Campbell made a point of mentioning him after the game. There’s never a throwaway comment this time of year.

We’ve got one week left. One joint practice, one more preseason game, and then final cuts. Who’s going to snatch a job? Who’s getting left out? It’s as wide open as ever, and the next week will decide it all.

What do you think? Should all three edge rushers make the team, or is someone getting left behind? Drop your thoughts in the comments or join the forum and let’s talk it out.