Lions Trade Up for Derrick Moore: Did Holmes Get Fleeced or Play It Smart?
Brad Holmes did what Brad Holmes does. The Lions GM traded up on Day 2, sending pick 128 to move from pick 50 to pick 44 and snag Michigan edge defender Derrick Moore. And yes, I know what you’re thinking. Another trade up. Another guy we’ve never heard of becoming the “must-have” player.
But here’s the thing. Holmes had his reasons, and they actually make sense for once.
The Ravens sat at pick 45, right behind where Detroit wanted to be. Holmes believed Baltimore was hunting for an edge rusher, and Moore was the Lions’ top-ranked defensive end available when Day 2 kicked off. You don’t let divisional rivals dictate your draft board, especially when you’ve got a real shot at something special brewing in Allen Park.
“I will say he was part of that cluster of guys that we were targeting today,” Holmes explained. “Just kind of paying attention to who was in front of us, who was behind us. It felt like, just right in that area, there were multiple edge rushers that were flying off.”
Holmes made it clear that Moore might not have been their overall top edge rusher, but he was their number one guy available at that moment. Draft boards are weird like that. Your third-ranked player can become your first priority real quick when the board starts falling apart.
Breaking Down the Trade Value
So did Holmes overpay to get his guy? Depends which trade chart you trust, and frankly, they’re all over the place.
The old Jimmy Johnson chart from the early 1990s says Detroit came out ahead by 16 points. That’s essentially a sixth-round pick in value. Not bad, but that chart is older than most of our current roster.
The Rich Hill chart, which reflects how teams actually trade in the modern NFL, shows this deal as dead even. Both sides got exactly 135 points of value. Clean. Simple. Fair.
But the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart? That one suggests Holmes got taken for a ride. According to their math, the Lions overpaid by 477 points, equivalent to a late fifth-rounder.
The Reality Check
Here’s the truth about trade charts: they’re guidelines, not gospel. The Rich Hill model matters most because it tracks what teams actually do, not what some formula says they should do. And by that measure, this trade was perfectly reasonable.
Holmes essentially called it a day after round two anyway, showing zero interest in trading back into the third round. That tells you everything about how he valued this draft class after the top tier. If you’re not planning to use those late picks anyway, why not cash them in for the guy you actually want?
Look, we’ve been burned by Holmes trades before. But this one feels different. A fourth-round pick to move up six spots for a Michigan edge rusher when you know Baltimore is lurking? That’s not panic trading. That’s knowing your board and making a move.
Was Holmes supposed to just sit there and hope Moore fell two more spots? In this draft climate? With edge rushers flying off the board? Come on.
Think Holmes lost sleep over potentially overpaying by a fifth-round pick’s worth of value to land his Day 2 target? Doubt it, and neither should we.
