The Annual Stat Projections Are Here and Honestly This Offense Is Ridiculous
Every year someone tries to predict what the Lions offense will do. Every year it feels like guessing lottery numbers. This year feels harder than ever because there are so many mouths to feed that projecting who gets what is borderline impossible.
Mike Payton over at A to Z Sports decided to take a swing at it anyway. And credit where it is due, he has been pretty damn good at this in the past. He nailed Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 2023 stat line down to the exact yardage. Before the 2025 season he projected Jared Goff would throw for 4,725 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 10 picks. Goff finished with 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 8 picks. That is not lucky guessing. That is putting in the work.
So let us see what he thinks happens in 2026.
Jared Goff Will Keep Being Jared Goff
Payton projects Goff to throw for 4,882 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on a 72% completion rate. That is a Pro Bowl season. That is not a career year, but it is a very productive year from a quarterback who has been consistently excellent under Dan Campbell.
The reasoning makes sense. The offensive line should be better. The weapons are everywhere. Goff does not need to hit career highs to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFC. He just needs to keep doing what he has been doing.
On the ground, Payton gives Goff 41 rushing yards and one touchdown. That rushing touchdown will probably come on a naked bootleg in the red zone that makes you wonder why they do not run that play more often. Then they will never run it again for three months.
Jahmyr Gibbs Gets the Bell Cow Treatment
The Lions have said they want to make Gibbs the featured back. Payton took them at their word. His projection: 290 carries for 1,402 yards and 12 touchdowns, plus 52 receptions for 472 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns.
That is a monster season. That is also what happens when you commit to your best offensive weapon and stop splitting carries down the middle.
Isiah Pacheco gets 115 carries for 502 yards and 5 touchdowns in this projection. That is solid depth production, but it is not David Montgomery numbers. Sione Vaki gets 18 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown, which sounds about right for someone who only plays in blowouts.
Jameson Williams also gets 8 carries for 72 yards. Those are the end-around plays he used to run early in his career. Honestly, it would be nice to see that wrinkle come back.
The Receiving Room Is Where It Gets Tricky
Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected for 118 receptions, 1,489 yards, and 10 touchdowns. That is basically what he does every year. He is the most consistent receiver in football and there is no reason to expect that to change.
Jameson Williams gets 67 receptions for 1,053 yards and 7 touchdowns. That is another thousand-yard season, but it is not a massive leap. The reasoning? There are too many mouths to feed and Isaac TeSlaa is expected to take a big step forward.
Speaking of TeSlaa, Payton projects 48 receptions for 712 yards and 4 touchdowns. That would be a huge jump in production. If it happens, it means the Lions finally have a legitimate third receiver who can stretch the field and make life easier for everyone else.
Sam LaPorta comes back from injury and posts 73 receptions for 889 yards and 8 touchdowns. That is not quite his rookie year dominance, but it is still elite tight end production. Tyler Conklin gets 30 catches for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns as the secondary tight end.
Greg Dortch gets 41 receptions for 481 yards and 3 touchdowns. That one is tough to project because Drew Petzing loved using Dortch in Arizona, but he also did not have this many weapons at his disposal. Could be more. Could be right on the money.
Gibbs finishes with 472 receiving yards and 1,402 rushing yards, which means he does not quite hit 2,000 all-purpose yards. That can be attributed to LaPorta being back and TeSlaa’s production going up.
So Are These Right?
Hell if I know. Predicting stats is always a crapshoot. But Payton has been right enough times in the past that it is worth paying attention. And the projections make sense given what we know about the offense, the roster, and the coaching staff.
What is clear is that this offense is stacked. Jared Goff has more weapons than he has ever had in his career. The offensive line should be better. The running game should be dominant. If this team does not put up points in bunches, something has gone very wrong.
Now we just have to wait and see if any of this actually happens. Which is the most Lions thing ever, isn’t it? Having all the pieces and still wondering if it will fall apart.
Do you think Gibbs actually gets 290 carries or are we kidding ourselves? Drop your take below.
