The NFC North Beat Writers Weighed In On Detroit’s Playoff Chances And You’re Not Going To Like What They Said
We asked beat writers from Minnesota, Green Bay, and Chicago to make the case for and against the Detroit Lions making the playoffs in 2026. Their answers? A mix of uncomfortable truths and cautious optimism that sounds a lot like what we’ve been saying all offseason.
Let’s start with the bad news, because if you’re a Lions fan, you know how this works.
Why The Lions Can’t Make The Playoffs
Tyler Forness, who covers the Vikings, did not mince words. There are too many questions. The offensive line interior is nowhere near what it was a couple years ago, and rookie first-rounder Blake Miller is likely starting at right tackle this year. When Jared Goff gets pressured, his passer rating drops nearly 50 points. That’s not a slight concern. That’s a structural problem.
On defense, Forness pointed to serious concerns on the defensive line. Will Alim McNeill get back to his pre-injury form? Are they really going to trust Derrick Moore to start opposite Aidan Hutchinson? And that’s before you get to the Terrion Arnold situation, which created another hole that raises even more questions.
Kole Noble, the Bears beat writer, zeroed in on the secondary. If there’s one weakness on this roster, it’s the secondary, and that was true before Detroit released Arnold. The Lions upgraded the offensive line this offseason but didn’t do nearly enough to improve the secondary, particularly on the outside. Health concerns with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch at safety only make it worse.
Noble’s point is sharp and unavoidable: you can’t afford secondary concerns in a division with Justin Jefferson, Christian Watson, Luther Burden III, Jordan Addison, Rome Odunze, and Jayden Reed. Detroit could still go out and acquire someone before the start of the season after the Arnold situation, and depending on who that is, it could shift the entire conversation.
Wendell Ferreira, who covers the Packers, went straight to the trenches. The Lions were 31st in pass block win rate last year, 20th in run block win rate, 26th in pass rush win rate, and 29th in run stop win rate. That’s flat out bad, especially for a team with the identity Dan Campbell wants to identify with.
Things could get even worse, according to Ferreira, because the secondary has handled so many issues with the Terrion Arnold release and some concerning injuries. That’s on top of the offensive line changes, which particularly affect a quarterback like Goff. The Lions were still good last year despite missing the playoffs, but it’s easier to make a case for the roster keeping the negative trajectory instead of a bounce-back year.
So yeah. That’s the case against. And if you’re being honest with yourself, none of it is wrong.
Why The Lions Can Make The Playoffs
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
Forness is bullish on Drew Petzing as the offensive coordinator. Petzing drew blood from a stone in Arizona without a lot of quality supporting cast, and his West Coast style approach will be good for Goff. The key will be limiting pressure, and Petzing’s creativity will be a huge asset after the disaster that was John Morton.
Defensively, Forness thinks the loss of Terrion Arnold could end up being addition by subtraction. His development curve wasn’t nearly what many thought it would be after the Lions selected him in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Detroit made additions at edge rusher to help out Hutchinson, which will be key to maximizing what Kelvin Sheppard can do.
Noble took a different approach. He believes the improved coaching staff on the offensive side of the ball will be the difference-maker for Detroit. Everyone knew John Morton wasn’t going to be able to replace Ben Johnson as Dan Campbell’s offensive coordinator. It was a one-and-done term waiting to happen.
This time around, Noble applauds the hires Campbell made with Drew Petzing as OC, Mike Kafka as the passing game coordinator, while retaining Hank Fraley as the run game coordinator. It’s a nice blend of schemes on that staff and it should go a long way toward making Detroit’s offense lethal once again. This team has the talent to outscore any team every given Sunday with the right staff in place.
Ferreira pointed out that the Lions certainly regressed from 2024 to 2025 to some extent, but the team was still third in DVOA last season, the only NFC North team inside the top 10. So the last place finish in the division was much more circumstantial than performance-driven.
Development of players is the key for Detroit to avoid more regression. They need answers, especially in the secondary. But the main point is protecting Goff. The Lions were 31st in pass block win rate last season according to ESPN, and Goff is one of the quarterbacks with the biggest gap between what they can do with a clean pocket versus what they are when pressured. If Penei Sewell’s transition to the left side and the rest of the line work significantly better in 2026, getting back to contention will be a much more realistic proposition.
So What Does All This Mean?
The case for and the case against are both sitting right there on the table. The offensive line is a concern, but Petzing could scheme around it. The secondary is thin, but maybe the Arnold move was addition by subtraction. The trenches were a disaster last year, but the Lions were still third in DVOA.
This is the tension we’ve been living with all offseason. Brad Holmes built a talented roster. Dan Campbell has the culture locked in. But there are real questions, and those questions don’t go away just because we trust the people in charge.
The good news? Every beat writer who made the case against Detroit also made the case for them. That tells you something. This team is talented enough and well-coached enough to make the playoffs. Whether they actually do it is going to come down to the things we can’t control: health, development, and whether Petzing can unlock this offense the way we all hope he can.
So do you think the case for outweighs the case against, or are we just setting ourselves up for another year of disappointment? Drop your take below.
