Running backs do not grow on trees anymore and the numbers prove it
There is a myth in football that has been circulating since about 2014, and it goes like this: running backs are replaceable, do not pay them, draft a new one every three years, rinse and repeat. It is a convenient narrative built on a handful of contract disasters and an obsession with passing efficiency. Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson. All paid big money. All aged horribly. Lesson learned, right?
Except the numbers tell a different story now.
Someone tracked every single running back drafted from the 2020 draft through the 2024 draft. That is 98 running backs total. Of those 98, only 21 became starters for multiple seasons. And that does not mean all 21 are still starting or playing at a high level.
Of those 21 multi-year starters, only eight became Pro Bowlers or All-Pros.
Jahmyr Gibbs is one of those eight.
An 8% hit rate is not a strategy
That is the success rate we are working with here. Eight percent chance you draft an elite running back. The other names on that list include Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, James Cook, Kyren Williams, Najee Harris, and D’Andre Swift. All of those guys are getting paid. All of them should be.
And Gibbs is no different.
You do not gamble your offense on an 8% hit rate. You do not let a guy who changes the way defenses play you walk out the door because of a narrative that was built on dead money from another era.
Not all running backs are the same
D’Andre Swift is a fine example of a replaceable running back. He did some good things in Detroit. Made a Pro Bowl. Had solid seasons with the Eagles and the Bears. But he did not fundamentally change the offense when he was on the field. Teams were not afraid of him. He did not alter how defenses game-planned.
Gibbs absolutely does.
When Gibbs is on the field, the explosive run rate is higher. Pre-snap motion looks different. Play-action effectiveness changes. Linebackers defend differently. Two-high shells become more common. Check-down explosiveness is elite. Outside zone stretch concepts are more frequent.
He runs between the tackles. He gets downhill. He functions as another receiver with 500 to 600 yards per season in the passing game and huge yards-after-the-catch numbers.
You do not let a guy like that walk based on a myth.
The draft is not a safety net
Look at the 2024 class. There were 19 running backs drafted, and only one became a starter during his rookie season. Some fans might point to a guy like Cam Skattebo, but that is highlight clips on social media, not consistent production. He got hurt and missed most of his rookie season.
The 2025 draft class tells a similar story. Outside of Jeremiyah Love, the third pick in the draft who is expected to be the next Robinson or Gibbs, there is no sure thing. Jonah Coleman, Nicholas Singleton, and Kaytron Allen could all be good players. None of them are going to transcend the position the way Gibbs has.
Teams around the league want to be like the Lions, and a huge part of that is because of what Gibbs brings to the offense. He changes everything when he is on the field.
You pay a guy like that. You make him one of the highest-paid running backs in football. Because replacing him is not realistic.
An 8% chance of finding the next Jahmyr Gibbs in the draft is not a bet worth taking.
So tell me, are you comfortable rolling the dice on replacing Gibbs or do you lock him up and build around what we know works? Drop your take below.
