We built a Dan Campbell Trust Index using five years of rookie data. Here’s what it says about the 2026 class
Every offseason, Lions fans convince themselves that most of the draft picks will play immediately. Sometimes that’s warranted. Sometimes it’s just camp brain and optimism taking over.
So instead of guessing which rookies Dan Campbell will trust this summer, there’s a better approach. Look at the ones he already has.
That’s the idea behind what I’m calling the Dan Campbell Trust Index. Using every Lions draft pick from 2021 through 2025, the goal is to measure how much trust he and the coaching staff showed each rookie during their first NFL season and use that as a guide heading into training camp.
How the Trust Index works
The score is split into two parts. The first is initial trust, which captures everything before the regular season started. Did the rookie make the Week 1 roster? Was he active right away? Did he start? How many snaps did he play early on? Was he working with starters in training camp? These indicators tell you how much confidence the staff had from day one.
The second part is earned trust. Did the player’s role grow once the season started? Did he become a starter later on? Did the coaches lean on him in big moments? That measures whether a player proved he deserved a bigger role.
Combine those two scores and you get a number out of 100.
A score between 90 and 100 means the coaching staff viewed that rookie as an immediate foundation piece. Between 75 and 89 is a trusted contributor. Between 60 and 74 means he had to earn his way into a significant role. Between 40 and 59, that’s your developmental player still working to gain Campbell’s confidence. Anything below 40, consider those guys redshirt rookies who just didn’t have the opportunity.
You have to understand, this is not a talent ranking. Some great players started with low trust scores and climbed. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the one who pops right off the sheet.
What the data tells us
In 2021, Penei Sewell scored a 97 total trust score. The Lions were celebrating in the war room when he fell to them. He earned even more trust as the season went on, moving from left tackle to right tackle and getting better every week. Immediate foundational player.
St. Brown, on the other hand, had an initial trust score of 18. He was basically nowhere to be found for the better part of the year.
Then the Lions won that game against the Minnesota Vikings, and that was his breakout. From there, his snap count skyrocketed, pushing his earned trust to 47. He didn’t arrive as a full-time piece. He forced his way into it.
The 2022 class gave us Aidan Hutchinson at a perfect 100, the highest score of any Lions rookie in the Campbell era. Malcolm Rodriguez is the more instructive case, though. Go back to Hard Knocks that year, and he was the story of the entire series. A sixth-round pick who was the clubhouse leader coming out of training camp to be a starter.
Rodriguez is the exact point of reference for any Day 3 pick. Just because you’re a late-round selection does not mean you can’t win a job.
The 2023 class was the most impressive across the board. Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and Brian Branch all had trust from the jump. LaPorta and Jared Goff formed an instant bond all the way back to OTAs. Jack Campbell had a lot of trust coming out of camp and played a lot early before his role dipped.
Hendon Hooker had essentially zero trust from day one and never gained any.
In 2024, Terrion Arnold earned a 90 total trust score. Christian Mahogany didn’t participate during training camp because of an illness, which delayed everything, but he earned trust when he got on the field later in the season.
The 2025 class offered its own lessons. Tate Ratledge was an immediate foundation piece. Campbell said during a press conference over the summer that he believed the team had found a real NFL right guard. Ratledge got in and kept earning trust as the season went on.
That’s what Detroit is looking for. Can you earn trust in the summer? And can you build upon it?
What this means for the 2026 class
The good thing is that just because a rookie doesn’t earn that trust at camp doesn’t mean he can’t earn it during the season. St. Brown and Kerby Joseph are proof.
And just because certain situations cause a player’s role to shrink, that doesn’t mean he can’t earn it back later.
Now we head into training camp armed with this knowledge. Keep an eye on who’s repping with the starters, who Campbell is talking about, who gets heavy preseason snaps, and who starts Week 1.
When the season ends, we’ll come back and assign the 2026 class their trust scores and see where it goes from there.
Which 2026 rookie do you think earns Dan Campbell’s trust first? Drop your take below.
