What Sophomore Jumps Tell Us About Dan Campbell’s Trust
Dan Campbell does not hand out playing time like party favors. You earn it. You keep it by proving you deserve it every single week. Some guys take off in their second season. Others plateau. A few actually lose ground.
We went back through every Lions draft class from 2021 through 2024 and measured how much trust each player earned in Year 2 compared to his rookie campaign. Same grading system as the rookie version. Same 100-point scale. Same honest accounting of who actually got on the field when it mattered.
What we found is a pretty clear pattern for how this coaching staff develops players. If you are trying to figure out which guys from the 2024 draft are most likely to break out, this might be the best blueprint we have.
The Instant Foundations
Penei Sewell went from a 97 trust score as a rookie to 100 in his second season. He was already a foundational piece after one year, but Year 2 made it official. The Lions were building the entire offensive line around him and he justified every bit of that faith.
Alim McNeill jumped 33 points from his rookie season into a full-time starting role. He proved himself as a foundational piece and still holds that spot now, even coming off an injury in 2025. I think he has a good chance of bouncing back.
Amon-Ra St. Brown went from a 65 rookie trust score to 96 in Year 2. One of the biggest leaps in the entire study. You could see it coming because his rookie score jumped hard in the second half of that first season. Getting to 96 just confirmed what the coaching staff already believed.
Aidan Hutchinson stayed at 100 both years. No surprise there. We know who he is. Foundational piece from day one.
The Big Second-Year Climbers
Kerby Joseph made a massive 38-point jump, going from 58 to 96 and becoming an immediate foundation piece in his second season. He went from rotational safety to full-time starter and never looked back.
Jameson Williams climbed 46 points from a 12 rookie trust score because he actually started playing real snaps. You could see the role expanding week by week. I think Year 3 will show that score keeps climbing even higher.
Jahmyr Gibbs went from 87 to 98. Detroit stopped easing him in. Remember when fantasy football people were hoping David Montgomery would get hurt so Gibbs could touch the ball more? Well, he helped those fantasy teams a lot in 2024.
Jack Campbell flew from 73 rookie trust to 98, a 25-point jump, and became exactly the player everyone expected him to be. I would be shocked if Campbell doesn’t hit 100 when we measure Year 3.
The Guys Who Lost Ground
Malcolm Rodriguez dropped 30 points from 83 down to 53. The Lions got a lot better at linebacker over that offseason and it squeezed his role. This might be the one spot where the trust score gets tricky because I think Campbell genuinely trusts Rodriguez. There just might not be a spot to put him.
Terrion Arnold dipped 30 points from 90 to 60 in his second season. Injuries affected his play and everything around it in 2025, and when we do this study again next summer, that score is going to drop to zero.
Sam LaPorta slipped 2 points from 100 to 98. He didn’t have as strong a season as the year before, played a little less, and dealt with an injury late in the year. There’s a chance that number could drop even further.
What This Means for the 2024 Rookies
Christian Mahogany made a 51-point jump from his rookie season, but that’s mostly because he actually got on the field after missing time. He’s marked as a trusted contributor right now, not a starter. Training camp this summer will tell us whether he can push that score back up.
The rest of that class largely didn’t work out. Giovanni Manu jumped 22 points but still landed in the low trust category. Sione Vaki dipped 4 points. Mekhi Wingo dropped 8. Those are not foundation pieces. Those are depth guys fighting to stay on the roster.
We’ll be back later this week with the Year 3 Trust Index. For the 2025 rookies trying to earn their keep this fall, this data offers the clearest lens we have into how Campbell’s staff builds trust over time. Let’s see how it plays out.
This trust index thing is actually genius because it shows how Campbell operates. He’s not gonna hand you reps just because you got drafted high. You gotta earn it week to week. That’s why Jameson going from a 12 to 58 is wild – the man went from basically not playing to being a legit piece. Can’t wait to see what Year 3 looks like for him.
I like the framework here but I’m skeptical about some of these scores feeling too generous. Like if Terrion Arnold is already dipping to 60 and we know he’s got injury issues, how much stock do we really put in this as a predictor? I trust Campbell and Holmes but I need to see more consistent development from these 2024 guys before I’m convinced they’re turning into something.
The way this staff evaluates and develops players is completely different from what we used to see around here. Campbell doesn’t care about hype or draft position, only what you show him on film. That’s the right way to build something that lasts. Alim McNeill jumping 33 points and becoming a cornerstone is exactly what good coaching does.
Kerby Joseph jumping 38 points and becoming a full-time starter immediately tells you everything about how this coaching staff finds value. Dude went from rotational to essential and he’s stayed essential. If we can keep this core together and add smart like Holmes has been doing, we’re looking at something special coming.
Cool data but let’s pump the brakes on assuming the 2024 rookies are gonna follow this same pattern. Most of that class didn’t move the needle much at all based on this article. I’m not saying Campbell is wrong or anything, just saying depth guys staying depth guys isn’t exactly breaking news.
What impresses me most about this is that Penei going from 97 to 100 and Aidan staying at 100 shows you when Campbell finds a guy who fits, he locks in. You don’t see that kind of consistency with rookies very often. This front office knows what it’s doing with player evaluation.