Aidan Keanaaina Leads the Pack of Long Shots
The Lions have had at least one undrafted rookie make the 53-man roster for 15 straight years. That streak ended in 2025. This year’s crop of nine UDFAs has work to do if they want to break that drought.
Because this is Detroit, and because we love data that tells us exactly how unlikely things are, we have actual percentages for each player’s chances. This comes from Arif Hasan’s model that uses guaranteed money and consensus draft rankings to predict UDFA success. It’s math, but it’s math that accounts for how brutal this process actually is.
Here’s where each Lions UDFA stands, from best shot to absolute prayer:
DT Aidan Keanaaina: 15.4% Chance
The 320-pound Cal product got $267,500 guaranteed and ranks as the most likely Lions UDFA to stick. That still translates to roughly one in seven odds, which should tell you everything about how hard this is.
But Keanaaina has something going for him that the others don’t: necessity. Detroit lost DJ Reader and Roy Lopez this offseason and didn’t exactly break the bank replacing them. A nose tackle who can eat blocks has a visible path to relevance on this roster.
LB Erick Hunter: 13.3% Chance
Hunter pulled down $175,000 guaranteed from Morgan State, which is the other meaningful chunk of money in this class. The linebacker depth chart isn’t exactly overflowing either, and Hunter brings the kind of motor and athleticism that could carve out special teams work first.
The jump from FCS to NFL is real. But so is the opportunity.
EDGE Anthony Lucas: 12.4% Chance
Here’s where it gets interesting. Lucas got zero guaranteed money but ranked 160th on the consensus big board, fifth-highest among all NFL UDFAs. The USC product was projected as a fifth-round talent who never quite lived up to expectations in college.
Detroit is betting on size at 6-foot-5, 256 pounds. Sometimes that’s enough. Sometimes it isn’t.
QB Luke Altmyer: 9.8% Chance
The Illinois quarterback probably isn’t making the 53-man roster unless something goes very wrong with Jared Goff or Teddy Bridgewater. But he’s running unopposed for the third quarterback spot right now, and his reputation as a smart, mobile quarterback gives him practice squad upside at minimum.
That’s not nothing in this league.
The Rest of the Field
Tennessee tight end Miles Kitselman sits at 8.2% and has the most realistic path among the remaining players. With Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright, and Tyler Conklin likely locked in at the top, Kitselman could justify a fourth tight end spot against minimal competition.
Rutgers edge rusher Eric O’Neill (7.7%) had an incredible 2024 season at James Madison before transferring and struggling at Rutgers. Community college to D1 to NFL is a hell of a climb, but stranger things have happened.
The final three UDFAs all sit below 5% probability. USF cornerback De’Shawn Rucker (4.1%), UNLV defensive back Aamaris Brown (3.5%), and Illinois offensive lineman Melvin Priestly (2.9%) are in pure lottery ticket territory.
The Reality Check
UDFAs collectively have a 9.5% chance of making a roster over the past five years. Most of Detroit’s class sits well below that already modest benchmark. This isn’t a criticism of Brad Holmes or the scouting department. This is just how the math works when you’re fishing in the leftover pool.
But here’s the thing about being a Lions fan for decades: you’ve seen stranger things happen. You’ve watched this organization find gems in the roughest places and completely whiff on sure things. The beauty of UDFA season is that nobody really knows anything until the pads come on and the hitting starts.
One or two of these guys will probably stick around on the practice squad. Maybe one surprises everyone and makes the 53. Maybe they all wash out by August. What matters is that Detroit is still looking for talent in every corner, still betting on development, still trying to find that next diamond in the rough.
After all these years of watching this franchise, that approach feels a hell of a lot better than hoping your fourth-round pick from 2003 finally figures it out.
Which UDFA do you think has the best shot at breaking through, or are we about to watch year two of the streak staying dead? Drop your take below.
Keanaaina at 15.4% is still our best shot and honestly that’s not terrible given the hole at DT right now. Holmes clearly sees something there with the guaranteed money, and I trust his eye way more than I used to trust some of the old regime’s picks. If anyone’s breaking that streak it’s probably him or Hunter.
I get the optimism but let’s be real, 15.4% is still basically a coin flip with heads never showing up. The math here is brutal and I’ve seen enough UDFA flops to know better than to get excited. That said, at least Holmes is being smart about where he’s spending the guaranteed money instead of just throwing darts.
You know, back in the day we’d just pray for anything to work out at this stage of the roster. The fact that we’re actually being strategic about UDFA evaluation and giving decent guaranteed money to the right guys tells me Campbell and Holmes understand what they’re building. That’s a different vibe than the old desperation moves.
Luke Altmyer running unopposed at QB3 is exactly the kind of patient development this team should be doing. Even if he doesn’t make the roster, practice squad depth matters and we’re not forcing anyone into bad situations just to fill spots. That’s how you actually build something real.