Here we go again. Another year, another chance for the NFC North to break our hearts in creative new ways.
The schedule dropped and the math is simple enough. Six divisional games. Over a third of the entire season. And with all three road division games crammed into the final four weeks, this thing is going to come down to how we handle business when it matters most.
The Reality Check We All Need
Last year was a masterclass in division futility. Swept by both the Vikings and Packers. Yes, we swept the division-winning Chicago Bears, but that wasn’t enough to get us to the playoffs. Missing the playoffs hits different when you know the window is right there.
So the question becomes: how many division wins do we realistically get in 2026?
Breaking Down the Bloodbath
Let’s start with Minnesota because there is no universe where getting swept by them again in 2026 is acceptable. Their defense gives our offense fits, sure, but their roster doesn’t stack up with the rest of the division right now. The quarterback situation alone should give us hope. Still, they always play us tough, so call it a split.
The Bears with Ben Johnson? That’s going to be interesting. He’s got a chip on his shoulder after Dan Campbell swept him last year, and you know he’s going to want to prove something. Probably splits there too, because division games are never easy even when they should be.
The Packers are where this gets tricky. Every fiber of my being wants to predict a sweep because this roster is better than theirs right now. But Green Bay always finds a way to make us miserable, especially in Lambeau. We get them after the bye week in the first matchup, which helps. But that Week 18 game in Wisconsin is going to be brutal even if we beat them there in the 2022 season.
The Conservative Take
Three wins feels right. Split with everyone, which sounds boring but probably reflects reality in a division this competitive.
The problem is three wins might not be enough if we’re looking at another tough season. We need to find a way to steal an extra game or two from this group, because the margin for error outside the division isn’t getting any easier.
How many division wins are you penciling in for 2026? Are we finally ready to take that next step in the North or are we setting ourselves up for more December heartbreak? Drop your predictions below.
I’m feeling pretty good about this division actually. The talent on this roster is real and Campbell’s got these guys believing in a way I haven’t seen in forever. Yeah we’ve had some rough December moments but that’s exactly what this team is built to fix now. Give me the sweep over Green Bay and I’m sleeping good.
Three division wins split feels safe but also feels like we’re shortchanging ourselves. The problem is we’ve said this stuff before and then December hits and everything falls apart. I want to believe we’re different now and honestly I think we are, but I need to see it actually happen before I’m penciling in wins against this group.
The difference between now and all those years of misery is that Campbell and Holmes actually know what they’re doing. Back in the day we’d get these late season games and just feel the losing coming a mile away. This staff has actually built something that can compete in this division week in and week out. That’s progress we can’t ignore.
Split with Minnesota and Chicago, then we gotta find a way to steal one in Green Bay because one sweep isn’t gonna cut it. The talent is there to win four or five division games if we execute. This is the year to finally get over the hump in the North.