Brad Holmes Can Lock Up All Three Players Right Now, But If The Math Ever Gets Ugly, There Is A Clear Sacrifice
The Lions have three extension decisions looming. Brian Branch, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta are all due for significant paydays, and the conversation around Detroit’s cap situation has sparked debate about whether the Lions can afford to keep all three.
Short answer: they can.
But as a thought exercise during the dead period before training camp, it is worth asking which player would make the most sense to move if the Lions absolutely had to part with one. And yes, I know what you are thinking. You are about to read a hypothetical trade scenario involving a player who is not going anywhere. Welcome to the offseason.
Let Me Be Clear Before We Go Any Further
I believe the Lions can get all three extensions done. Detroit has become a kick-the-can-down-the-road team when it comes to contracts, front-loading guaranteed money with low early cap hits and then restructuring or extending players two or three years later. It is similar to what the Philadelphia Eagles have been doing.
There are ways that approach can hurt you down the line, but the Lions do not care about that right now. The goal is to win a Super Bowl. Holmes is not playing small ball with the cap. He is playing to win in a championship window that is open right now.
Brian Branch Is Not Walking Out Of Allen Park
Branch is the kind of player you do not let walk. He is versatile enough to play both safety spots, outside cornerback on either side, or nickel. He can do whatever you need him to do in the secondary, and he does it at an elite level.
Yes, there are minor concerns. You would like to see him stop getting fined so much. You would prefer he not get into a scuffle with JuJu Smith-Schuster after a game. But none of that affects how well he plays.
And while he did tear his Achilles, the understanding right now is that there have been no setbacks, and there is a chance he could be back at training camp. A torn Achilles is not a career death sentence anymore.
A projected 4-year deal worth $80 million with $55 million guaranteed would make him one of the top five to seven highest-paid safeties in the league. That is not breaking the bank. The first two cap hits in that projection come in at $6 million and $10 million. By 2029, when the cap hit climbs to $18.5 million, the Lions could restructure or extend again.
There are so many options. It just does not make sense to move on from Branch.
Jahmyr Gibbs Changes Everything
People love to say you do not pay running backs. I get it. But that blanket statement does not apply to a player like Gibbs. When he is on the field, he changes the way defenses have to game-plan against Detroit. He makes the Lions offense a completely different unit.
Calling my shot: Gibbs is going to be the highest-paid running back in NFL history once this extension gets done. That might not last long, because the Falcons will likely make Bijan Robinson the new top guy after that. But let us be real. Gibbs is more dangerous than Robinson. Robinson is good, but Gibbs is on another level with what he can do in space.
With the Lions expected to lean into a gap scheme and heavy personnel under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, Gibbs is set up for a monster 2026 season. Dan Campbell said during OTAs that Gibbs will be the bell cow. There is a good chance he could lead the league in rushing yards.
If you have the No. 1 pick in fantasy, you take him without a second thought.
Sam LaPorta Would Be The Guy, But He Is Not Going Anywhere
This is where the conversation gets worth having.
ESPN’s Ben Solak put out an article before the Fourth of July listing trades he believes could happen during the 2026 season, and one of them was sending LaPorta to the Carolina Panthers. Solak did not include specific trade compensation, but realistically, you would be looking at something around a third-round pick.
LaPorta is going to get paid. Kyle Pitts recently got into the $19 million range, and a projected 4-year, $80 million deal with $52 million guaranteed would make LaPorta the first tight end to hit $20 million per year.
Some Lions fans will point to the T.J. Hockenson trade as precedent. I get that, but it was a different time. When Detroit traded Hockenson in 2022, the team was rebuilding and trying to dig out of the cap mess Bob Quinn left behind. That is not the situation anymore.
If the Lions had to trade one of these three players, LaPorta would make the most sense. Not because he is bad, but because you have a better chance of reproducing what a good tight end gives you than reproducing what Branch does in the secondary or what Gibbs does to an entire offense.
LaPorta is a good receiver, a solid safety blanket, and productive after the catch. But his blocking is solid, not spectacular. The drop-off from losing him would be the most manageable of the three.
That said, it makes no sense for the Lions to do this. Detroit does not have another major extension on the horizon for roughly two years now that Terrion Arnold is gone. The Lions can pay all three guys and remain in a strong cap position.
Plus, with what Petzing wants to do with 12 and 13 personnel, LaPorta makes that whole system work. He is not going anywhere.
But if someone had to go, he would be the one.
So would you trade LaPorta for cap relief if it meant locking up Branch and Gibbs long-term, or are you riding with all three until the math forces Brad Holmes to make a real decision? Drop your take below.
