Everyone Needs to Relax About Jahmyr Gibbs
The discourse around Jahmyr Gibbs’ contract has reached full panic mode and it needs to stop. Social media is losing its mind. Talk radio callers are demanding answers. National media types are floating trade scenarios like this is some kind of crisis.
It’s not.
The Detroit Lions are going to pay Jahmyr Gibbs. If you have watched Brad Holmes operate for even five minutes, you know this already.
Holmes Has Never Cheaped Out
Let’s review the Brad Holmes track record on extensions because apparently some people need the reminder.
He made Aidan Hutchinson the highest-paid edge rusher in the league. He made Kerby Joseph the highest-paid safety in the league. He paid Amon-Ra St. Brown as one of the highest-paid receivers. He made Jameson Williams one of the highest-paid receivers. He made Penei Sewell the highest-paid tackle.
Notice a pattern? Holmes does not negotiate down. He does not play games. When it is time to pay his guys, he pays them at the top of the market. Every single time.
So why would anyone think he’s going to start pinching pennies now?
This Was Never a Normal Extension
Here’s the piece of context that has been missing from every hot take and angry Twitter thread: Gibbs was not negotiating in a vacuum. This was not a straightforward extension where Detroit names a number and everyone moves on with their lives.
Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson were both looking for extensions at the exact same time. The two best running backs in the league, both hitting the market simultaneously. That is not normal. That almost never happens.
This whole thing turned into a race, and whoever went first was always going to set the floor for the other. Robinson went first. He became the highest-paid running back in NFL history. Good for him.
But the Lions are going to top it.
If you are Gibbs’ agent, you are telling Brad Holmes that your client deserves to be the highest-paid running back no matter what. And honestly? He’s not wrong. Gibbs is the best back in the league. That is not a hot take, that is just watching football. His camp likely had baseline conversations with Detroit but needed to see what Robinson got before real negotiations could start. The market was not set until a few days ago.
And it gets even messier than that. The Dolphins were working on an extension with De’Von Achane, who became the guy with the highest total value before Robinson got paid. The Colts were in talks with Jonathan Taylor. There were moving parts all over the league.
What Gibbs Is Going to Want
The ask is pretty straightforward. Gibbs’ side is going to want more money in total value, more money in average annual value, and they are going to want to beat the one spot where Robinson did not finish on top: total guaranteed money.
Robinson got $51 million total guaranteed. But somehow, rookie Jeremiyah Love landed $53 million fully guaranteed before ever playing a down in the NFL. How Love’s agent pulled that off is beyond comprehension, but the number is out there, and Gibbs is going to want to top it.
Highest total value. Highest average annual value. Highest total guaranteed money. The full sweep.
The Lions can do that. They will do that.
Why It Has Not Happened Yet
Robinson got paid two days ago, so why hasn’t Gibbs been locked up already? Because it is not that simple.
The Atlanta Falcons are in a much different cap situation than Detroit. Atlanta has Robinson, Drake London, and Tua Tagovailoa on a cheaper quarterback deal. They do not have what the Lions have to contend with.
Jared Goff is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league. Detroit has one of the highest-paid edge rushers, one of the highest-paid linebackers. The Lions have a deep roster full of expensive players.
Detroit can absolutely make this contract happen, but they need to figure out how to structure it. That is not something you do overnight. They have to go to the drawing board and figure out how to pay Gibbs everything he wants while still being able to pay Sam LaPorta, pay Brian Branch, sign free agents, make trades, and handle future rookie classes. They need to timeline everything out for restructures down the road.
It is a complex puzzle. Just throwing a number at Gibbs without thinking through the structure would be irresponsible, and Brad Holmes does not operate that way.
The Trade Talk Is Nonsense
The idea that the Lions should trade Gibbs because running backs are easy to find drives me insane. That narrative is flat-out false.
Running backs are getting paid more and more. The NFL is trending toward teams that can run the ball effectively. When you have the best running back in the league, you hold on to him. You do not let that guy walk.
The other argument, that the Lions should just let Gibbs play out his current deal and franchise tag him, is even worse. You are telling a player you love him while simultaneously saying he is not important enough to pay. The franchise tag is the number one thing that angers players. That is not how you build the culture Dan Campbell has established in Detroit.
It Is Coming Soon
The Lions are going to pay Jahmyr Gibbs. This is probably going to happen within the next couple weeks.
The only reason it has taken this long is because there was a literal counterpart just as good as he is looking for a deal at the same time, and both teams were waiting to see who moved first. Now we know. The market is set.
Brad Holmes has never let us down on these extensions. He is not about to start now.
So is Gibbs about to become the highest-paid back in league history or are we all just overreacting for no reason? Drop your take below.
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