The Three Contract Paths for Jahmyr Gibbs
Brad Holmes has a problem. A good problem, but still a problem. Jahmyr Gibbs is about to get paid, and paid handsomely, because that’s what happens when you draft a running back who immediately becomes one of the best players at his position in the entire league.
There are three realistic paths for Holmes to take with Gibbs’ extension. Two of them make sense. One of them would completely break the running back market in ways that would make other front offices very unhappy.
Let’s walk through all three, because this decision is coming whether we’re ready for it or not.
Option A: The Conservative Play
In this scenario, the Lions make Gibbs one of the highest-paid running backs without making him the absolute top dog. We’re talking about a four-year extension worth $76 million at $19 million per year.
That would put him behind Saquon Barkley in terms of annual value, which frankly feels ridiculous when you watch both players on Sunday. But this is the approach that keeps the cap manageable and doesn’t completely reset market expectations.
The structure would start with a low hit in 2026 at $9.5 million, then jump to $14.5 million in 2027 when his fifth-year option kicks in, before settling into the $22-26 million range through the meat of the deal.
This feels like the least likely option, though. Gibbs is fully expected to reset the market, and honestly, it would be wild if he didn’t.
Option B: Highest Average, But Not Guaranteed
Here’s where things get interesting. A four-year extension worth $84 million with $52 million guaranteed would make Gibbs the highest-paid running back by annual average value at $21 million per year.
The problem? He wouldn’t have the most guaranteed money among running backs. That distinction belongs to a rookie, the Cardinals’ first-round pick Jeremiyah Love. And that’s exactly why this approach doesn’t work.
You can’t make a player the highest-paid by one metric while leaving him behind a rookie in guaranteed money. That’s not how elite players think, and it’s not how their agents negotiate.
Option C: Break The Market Entirely
This is it. This is what’s going to happen when all the smoke clears. A four-year deal worth $92 million with $23 million per year and $65 million guaranteed.
Those numbers would make Gibbs the flat-out highest-paid running back in NFL history by every metric that matters. Cap hits would start at $8.3 million in 2026, then climb to the $24-32 million range as the deal progresses.
I know some fans live and die by the “don’t pay running backs” philosophy, but Gibbs is not your average running back who can be easily replaced. This is the kind of player you absolutely pay, market be damned.
The Lions would likely restructure in the later years to manage those cap hits, but even at their highest, they probably wouldn’t be the biggest number on the team’s books.
The Reality Check
Holmes didn’t draft Gibbs to let him walk over contract negotiations. He didn’t build this offense around a player he wasn’t planning to keep long-term.
And yes, the numbers are big. They’re going to make other front offices groan when they have their own running back negotiations. But that’s what happens when you have a player this good this young.
The Lions are in a championship window. You don’t let elite players in their prime walk away because you’re worried about setting market precedent.
Holmes will get this done, probably sooner rather than later, and it’ll probably look a lot like Option C. Because that’s what you do when you have a generational talent who helps define your offense.
Think Holmes is crazy for potentially breaking the running back market, or is this exactly what championship teams do? Let’s hear it in the comments.
