The Numbers Don’t Lie: Lions Get the Softest Schedule While Chicago Gets the Sledgehammer
The analytics just dropped some beautiful music for Lions fans, and it sounds like the Chicago Bears crying into their deep dish pizza. Detroit is sitting pretty with one of the easiest offensive schedules in the NFL in 2026, while the Bears are about to find out what a buzz saw feels like.
We already knew the Lions had the easiest overall strength of schedule in 2026. Now the DVOA numbers are telling us something even better: this offense is going to feast.
Detroit’s Offense Gets a Buffet of Bad Defenses
The Lions are facing defenses that averaged around 19.6 in DVOA rankings in 2025. For context, that means Detroit is playing a parade of units that were ranked in the bottom half of the league or worse.
Take a look at what’s on the menu: the Jets ranked 31st in defensive DVOA. The Titans were 29th. The Giants checked in at 26th. The Bears? A lovely 25th. Even the supposedly tough matchups like the Saints and Falcons were middle-of-the-pack at 13th and 12th.
The hardest defense on Detroit’s schedule? The Vikings, who ranked 3rd and happened to beat the hell out of the Lions on Christmas Day last season. One elite unit in 17 games is not exactly a murderer’s row.
Sure, some of these defenses could improve. But how much? Are the Titans suddenly jumping from 29th to top 10? Are the Giants going from 26th to elite? That’s not how this works.
Meanwhile, Chicago Gets the Tour of Champions
The Bears drew the 30th-easiest schedule for their offense, which is a polite way of saying they’re screwed. Chicago gets to face the Seahawks (1st in defensive DVOA), the Eagles (7th), the Jaguars (6th), and even our own Lions defense (9th).
This is the schedule you get when you win the division. This is what happens when the football gods decide it’s time for a reality check. The Bears had a soft run to their NFC North title in 2025, and now they’re about to find out what life is like when every week brings another top-tier defense.
Can Caleb Williams and that offense handle this kind of sustained pressure? We’re about to find out if 2025 was real development or just the byproduct of favorable matchups.
The Perfect Storm for Detroit
This is the kind of schedule that turns good teams into great ones and great teams into juggernauts. With Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs facing a steady diet of questionable defenses, those 12-win predictions are starting to look conservative.
And yes, I know what you’re thinking. This is Detroit. We don’t get nice things. Something will go wrong. But Brad Holmes built this roster for moments exactly like this, and Dan Campbell has proven he knows how to take advantage of opportunity.
The Bears wanted to be division champions. They got their wish. Now they get to find out what that really costs.
Think the Lions are about to run the table while Chicago crashes back to earth, or are we setting ourselves up for another classic Detroit disappointment? Drop your take below.
