Lions Schedule Drop: Nine Games of Truth (Part 1)
The schedule is finally here, and after staring at it for longer than any reasonable human should, one thing is clear: this feels like the most favorable Lions schedule in years. The November Germany-Thanksgiving sandwich is going to be brutal, and that late season divisional gauntlet could get ugly fast, but outside of those landmines? Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell have been handed a real opportunity here.
Now that we know when and where this team will try to prove itself, let’s dive into the matchups that matter most. These are the battles within battles that could define how this whole thing goes.
Week 1 vs. New Orleans Saints: Drew Petzing vs. Brandon Staley
Drew Petzing steps into the spotlight, expected to fill Ben Johnson’s shoes while we all pretend the John Morton era never happened. The Saints finished 6-11 and last in the NFC South last season, which makes this opener feel safe on paper. It is not safe.
New Orleans quietly fielded one of the league’s more underrated defenses under Brandon Staley. They lost longtime stalwart Demario Davis plus Alontae Taylor, but Pete Werner and the returning Kaden Elliss still anchor the middle, Jonas Sanker and veteran Justin Reid patrol the back end, and Chase Young plus Carl Granderson will test our newly entrenched offensive tackle bookends immediately.
Here’s the thing that should worry you: from Weeks 10-18 last season, the Saints finished top 10 in defensive DVOA and top five in passing EPA, rushing EPA, passing success rate, and rushing success rate allowed—including an absurdly low 39.2% offensive passing success rate allowed. The stiffest defense we face all season might show up in Week 1, which means Petzing better hit the ground running or we’re looking at another season-opening disaster.
Week 2 at Buffalo Bills: Jack Campbell vs. Josh Allen
Josh Allen has been a nightmare for this defense during the Dan Campbell era. In two games against Detroit since 2022, Allen has averaged more than 300 passing yards and two passing touchdowns while also piling up 73 rushing yards, 1.5 rushing touchdowns, and 5.5 rushing first downs per game with his minotaur play style.
This becomes an early test for Jack Campbell, who now has to adjust to life without longtime partner Alex Anzalone beside him. Campbell needs this defense ready for coach Joe Brady’s fast-paced offense, one that can shift from bruising 13-personnel looks with extra bodies at the line of scrimmage to spread-heavy 10-personnel sets that let Allen play rampaging point guard in the open field.
Campbell will be central to neutralizing Buffalo’s run game early, clogging the middle-of-the-field passing windows, and sniffing out Allen’s improvisational chaos as a QB spy. If he can’t, this could get ugly in a hurry.
Week 3 vs. New York Jets: Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed vs. Garrett Wilson
Aaron Glenn comes home, and while the Jets defense should improve after an aggressive offseason, it’s actually their offense drawing the spotlight here. That includes a homecoming of sorts for Geno Smith, who returns to play for the franchise that drafted him 13 years ago.
In three games against the Lions as Seattle’s starting quarterback, Smith averaged nearly 350 passing yards per game alongside a 60.3% passing success rate, 8.2 yards per attempt, and a 107.2 passer rating—all figures which would have been top three among all quarterbacks last season.
When Smith previously did damage against the Lions, much of it came through feeding opportunities to physically overwhelm Detroit defensive backs. That makes this critical for Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed—both coming off underwhelming campaigns—to collectively limit Garrett Wilson when matched up against him. Wilson will finally be paired with the first truly competent quarterback play of his NFL career, and if Detroit’s outside corners can make life difficult on him, it would go a long way toward preventing this game from becoming far more uncomfortable than it needs to be.
Week 4 at Carolina Panthers: Tate Ratledge vs. Derrick Brown
The Panthers spent the postseason going toe-to-toe with the Rams while the Lions didn’t even get an invite to the dance, and they shouldn’t be taken lightly—especially in primetime in Charlotte. One of the biggest driving forces behind Carolina’s rise, and the fulcrum of its defense, is defensive tackle Derrick Brown.
Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero remains one of the league’s brighter minds, and Brown remains the centerpiece everything revolves around. Brown recorded a career-high five sacks last season while adding 73 total tackles. Now two years removed from his early-season meniscus injury, Brown may be fully back on a warpath. Brown spent a majority of his snaps last season on the prowl of the defensive left-side B-gap, making this an excellent early measuring-stick matchup for Tate Ratledge.
Development is rarely linear, but the Lions are hoping Ratledge continues emerging in Year 2 as a Pro Bowl-caliber enforcer. To get there, Ratledge will need to rediscover the nimble, stonewall, pass-protecting consistency he showed in college while adjusting to the transition from Penei Sewell to rookie Blake Miller beside him on the right side. One possible advantage for Detroit could come from Cade Mays—returning to Carolina—being available to lend support when needed against Brown’s disruptive power.
Week 5 at Arizona Cardinals: Alim McNeill and Tyleik Williams vs. Cardinals Interior Line
The Lions are expected to get a fully healthy, disruptive bounce-back season from McNeill, with Williams stepping into an even larger and more impactful role. These two can make or break Detroit’s ceiling as a top-tier defense, especially against an Arizona offense that will likely lean heavily on featured running back investments in a new regime in Jeremiah Love, James Conner, and Tyler Allgeier.
To slow that ground attack, McNeill and Williams will need to control the point of attack and create consistent disruption up the gut. That means winning matchups against a refurbished Cardinals interior offensive line featuring veteran Isaac Seumalo, steady center Hjalte Froholdt, and rookie second-rounder Chase Bisontis.
How the hefty hunks match up will be a true litmus test for where McNeill and Williams are at this point in the season. If those two can consistently win inside and force Arizona to be one-dimensional, the Lions defense can tilt the game in its favor and make life miserable for whoever is under center, with the interior duo collapsing the pocket from the inside out.
Week 7 vs. Green Bay Packers: Penei Sewell vs. Micah Parsons
The Lions get their first divisional game of the season coming off a bye week, and redemption should absolutely be on their minds after going 2-4 in the division last season, being swept by both the Packers and Vikings.
Two titans from the 2021 NFL Draft, Penei Sewell and Micah Parsons, will now get to clash twice annually for the foreseeable future as both appear to be on a collision course toward Canton. Week 7 feels like the perfect runway for this matchup with Sewell continuing to acclimate to left tackle and Parsons working his way back from a December ACL tear.
Parsons lined up on the defensive right side on 56.4% of his snaps last season, managed 12.5 sacks and a 22.6% pass-rush win rate that ranked fourth in the NFL—one spot behind Aidan Hutchinson. The Packers defense, now under new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon will likely rely heavily on Parsons to tilt games in their favor. If Sewell can neutralize him, and perhaps even use Parsons’ aggressiveness against him in the run game, it would go a long way toward putting the Lions offense in control.
