The Dan Campbell Trust Index Just Proved What Every Lions Fan Already Knew
This franchise has a pattern now. A process. If you’re a Detroit Lions draft pick under Dan Campbell, year three is either your coronation or your funeral.
The Dan Campbell Trust Index tracked every draft pick from the Holmes-Campbell era through three full NFL seasons. It measured how much responsibility the coaching staff gave each player as they developed. The results are not subtle. Year three is when you either cement yourself as a foundational piece or you fall off the roster entirely.
This is not about talent. It never was. It’s about trust earned over time.
How the Trust Index Works
Each player gets scored based on how much responsibility they carry throughout a season. Did they start? Did they play high-leverage snaps? Did their role expand? The max score is 100. A perfect score means the coaching staff trusts you completely.
Scores between 90 and 100 mean you’re an immediate foundation piece. Scores between 75 and 89 mean you’re a trusted contributor. Anything below 40 means you’re a redshirt or a project. The data tracks changes year over year so you can see who’s rising and who’s sinking.
Players who missed most or all of a season due to injury were not graded. This is about trust, not bad luck.
The 2021 Draft Class Told the Whole Story
Penei Sewell walked in with a perfect 100 trust score from day one and never dropped below it. Amon-Ra St. Brown hit 100 by year three. Those two were always going to be franchise cornerstones. Everyone knew it.
But the real story is Derrick Barnes.
Barnes had a 44 trust score after his second season. By year three, he jumped to an 86. That 42-point leap is the entire thesis of this study in one number. His 2023 season was the one that got him paid. Before that, he was a question mark. After year three, he was the guy.
Ifeatu Melifonwu climbed 26 points in year three. Remember how important he became during the back half of that 2023 season? His interception sealed the Lions’ first NFC North championship. The trust was there. The fact that he’s no longer on the roster is a different conversation.
Levi Onwuzurike’s trust score dropped. Alim McNeill’s dipped slightly, but that had more to do with missing games than losing confidence from the coaching staff. He only played 13 games that season. Jermar Jefferson scored a zero in year three and is long gone.
The 2022 Class Was Even More Dramatic
Aidan Hutchinson couldn’t be graded for year three because of his injury. He only played a handful of weeks. But Jameson Williams told the whole story by himself.
Williams went from a 58 in year two to a 92 in year three. By 2024, he became a huge part of the Lions’ offense. That number would likely sit at 100 if the study extended another season. Kerby Joseph hit a perfect 100 after an All-Pro year three campaign, the best of his career.
Josh Paschal ticked up slightly to a 66 but faces a likely plummet based on what we’ve seen since. Malcolm Rodriguez climbed 11 points to a 64. James Houston dropped. Chase Lucas dropped to zero and is gone. James Mitchell dropped 18 points and barely registered.
Year three separates the guys you build around from the guys you replace.
The 2023 Class Might Be the Best Group of All
Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell both earned perfect 100 trust scores in year three. Campbell made first-team All-Pro. Gibbs did the same. This is what a hit draft class looks like under Brad Holmes.
Sam LaPorta only dropped one point, and that was due to injury. Before he went down, the trust was clearly there. Brian Branch landed at 99, with his torn Achilles at the end of the season likely costing him that final point.
On the other end, Hendon Hooker dropped 18 points and didn’t make the team. Brodric Martin fell six points and was also gone. Colby Sorsdal dropped eight points. Antoine Green scored a zero.
The pattern is brutal and consistent. Year three is judgment day.
What This Means for the 2024 Draft Class
If year three is when Lions players prove themselves under Campbell, then the 2024 draft class enters the spotlight in 2026. Ennis Rakestraw, Sione Vaki, Giovanni Manu, and Christian Mahogany all have the opportunity to change the narrative around their draft class.
Rakestraw is the most fascinating case. People need to stop calling him a bust. Injuries have stunted his growth since he was a second-round pick, but there’s a reason he went as high as he did. If he can stay healthy, year three could be the proving ground.
The Trust Index has shown us that Campbell’s program rewards patience and development. The excuses are gone by year three. Players have had multiple offseasons in the system, they’ve developed physically, and the coaching staff knows exactly what they have.
Some become cornerstones. Others plateau. And some lose responsibilities as the roster improves around them.
For the 2024 class, we’ll see which category each player falls into soon enough.
Is year three really the make-or-break year for Lions draft picks, or are we just seeing what Brad Holmes already knew two years ago? Drop your take below.
